You may have missed it this past weekend, but a little art film hit theaters, telling a little-known but painfully true story about white people being horrible to indigenous people, again. It was hailed as a hit after hauling in $23.2 million domestically over the weekend, and $44 million worldwide.
That's a solid opening for a limited-release film grappling with a challenging subject, especially given the problems theaters are facing since the pandemic. It's even heart-warming to think how an up-and-coming director has connected with the movie-going public through his complex, deeply crafted work.
Except, of course, that Killers of the Flower Moon is anything but a little art film, and its 80-year-old director Martin Scorsese is no up-and-coming auteur. He’s made some of the last half century’s most celebrated movies, from Taxi Driver to Raging Bull, Goodfellas to Casino, The Departed to Wolf of Wall Street.
So it was a success, right? Well, not really, at least under the standard calculus of Hollywood theatrical releases.
In fact, if Killers had come from a traditional Hollywood studio, like all those previous projects, and had an opening weekend like this one, it would almost certainly be regarded as a financial debacle. Studio executives likely would blame the poor economic climate, the industry’s strikes and post-pandemic hangover, or some other gremlin (it’s always marketing’s fault), as they prepared to write off a nine-figure sum, and likely the company’s entire quarter.
That’s because , 10 times the budget of even a relatively well-funded art film. And marketing from Apple and Paramount
Killers will be challenged to have a profitable run in theaters. There’s that expansive length, 3 hours and 26 minutes, which makes it difficult for theaters to get more than one showing in an evening, instead of two or more with a shorter project.
And the day-to-day dropoff in box office isn’t promising either. From Friday to Saturday, domestic grosses dropped 13%, and from Saturday to Sunday, it fell another 30%. So much for positive word of mouth on social media. There’s even the distribution fee Apple is paying Paramount, which eats further into Apple’s share of box office.
It’s true that the film was warmly received by those who did see it. By the calculations of BoxOfficeMojo, Killers had the 42nd-best opening weekend of all time among R-rated films, and the 53rd-best such weekend of any October release. the audience scores were nearly as good, at 85% from more than 1,000 people.
But it's hard to see the box office haul as an achievement. Apple and Paramount gave Killers the 50th widest release of any R-rated film ever, in 3,618 theaters, according to BoxOfficeMojo. Basically, if people wanted to see Killers, it was available nearby. That wide release translated to a per-screen average, that other measure of art-film success, of $5,216. In art-film terms, that’s kinda meh.
But ask an industry analyst what all this means for Apple, as I did today at a conference on streaming video advertising on the Warner Bros. Discovery lot in Burbank, Calif., and they scoff.
“Apple has $90 billion in free cash flow,” the analyst told me. “So (the movie) loses $100 million, Apple won’t care. If they do start to care, look out.”
Technically, last year but the analyst’s point certainly stands. Apple has a market capitalization of $2.7 trillion, and is one of the world’s most valuable companies. Selling literal boatloads of iPhones (232 million last year) gives the company some leeway when side hobbies like a streaming service hit a speed bump.
It’s just harder to figure out what Apple is doing with TV+. It’s not like CEO Tim Cook was in the room today with other CEOs in restarted negotiations with the striking actors of SAG-AFTRA. TV+ just matters a lot less to Apple than, say, Disney+ does to Disney’s stumbling fortunes (and Disney CEO Bob Iger was in on the strike negotiations).
True, Apple TV+, has had some undeniable successes, like Ted Lasso’s two Outstanding Comedy Emmys, and CODA’s Best Picture Oscar. Series such as The Morning Show, Severance, For All Mankind, Foundation, Silo and Shrinking have gotten critical and pop-cultural notice.
The service’s library, however, remains painfully thin, despite four years of spending on originals and acquisitions. That library looks particularly underfed compared to competing services from Hollywood media companies that have been making movies and TV shows for a century. Even fellow tech giant Amazon
Killers will soon be part of Apple TV+, after taking its turn as Apple’s Oscar bid in what should be a most unusual awards season, thanks to the writer and actor strikes that have stalled many projects, and forced postponements of others. Right now, Barbie looks like it will win everything, including best paint job.
Apple, meanwhile, has generally declined to lay out a business case for Apple TV+, other than make it part of the Apple One bundle of services that it sells. Apple One also includes, at its beefiest, the iCloud backup service, Apple Music, the Apple Arcade game service, Apple News+, and Fitness+ as well as TV+. The “premier” tier provides all six services for up to six people, for $32.95 per month.
Apple has used the streaming service as part of its long-running strategy to expand its Services division, which includes all the Apple One services plus profitable ventures such as its Apple Care warranties. The company won’t report its latest quarterly results until Nov. 2, but in August, Apple reported Q2 Services revenues of $21.2 billion.
Again, that’s for just the quarter. For perspective, those quarterly revenues equal nearly as much as the entire market capitalization for Warner Bros. Discovery ($24.6 billion).
So when we try to evaluate whether a grim, 3.5-hour historical drama from an acknowledged master is a “flop,” it’s important to remember one thing: as long as people watch the movie on TV+, and maybe it wins an Oscar or two, so people keep subscribing to Apple One, who cares?
It. Just. Doesn’t. Matter. at least until Apple decides it does matter. Then, as that analyst warned me, Hollywood better look out.